Trading Bitcoin 002
A wild week of ups, downs, and side-to-sides. Per usual.
The current price of bitcoin just south of $40,000 as I type this out and it’s been one hell of a week, hasn’t it? The price has jumped between $38k to $43k which is a trader’s dream! Of course one has to execute trades to actually get those profitable outcomes and one doesn’t always have to make a trade.
This is my second update (read the first ever TB here) and I may have gone a bit overboard with the writing in the first week because it’s been so long since I’ve consistently written anything public — I think I just had to get it out of my system!
Shaking off the cobwebs of writing is taking a bit of time and there’s a smoothness and fluidity of thought into digital letters and words that isn’t quite like what it’s been; that’ll come in time and I’m having to design and build some new creative workflows anyways since I’ve never really built or shared these types of graphical material (i.e. charts).
And this month is supposed to be experimentation month anyway and everything during this “phase” of the new project will be open and free to everyone, especially since I’m still working on the schedule of content and how I want it all to work.
I am looking and asking for feedback, of course!
I appreciate the feedback from those that have provided it and although I appreciate the kind and supportive words what I really need is critical feedback that’ll push me to iterate and refine my approach; I already got a few thoughts from folks about how the daily posts are a bit “disconnected” and don’t flow as nicely as they probably could — that’s good and I was feeling that particular issue as well.
I’m not entirely sure who the audience will be in the short term but in the long term I see folks subscribing and joining the community who want to build an income stream through trading bitcoin (and other such types of assets). I use harmonic patterns and fibonacci sequences but there are so many ways to trade; definitely not a one-size-fits-all type of thing! One could do this part-time or full-time and the market will take as much time and money as you throw at it; pretty flexible in that way.
In fact, I remarked on this very point — after making my lunch money:
Trading isn’t hard but it also isn’t easy and it requires one to “know thyself” more than any set or combination of skills and workflows. It is a wonderfully-nuanced and creative endeavor and one that I’m enjoying more and more the longer I spend time in the market.
Which, of course is the goal as a beginner trader: Finding time to digest and understand the market so you can begin to profit from your knowledge and experience — there is no other way to do it than to do it.
My goals for this coming week is to finish most of the Trading Library and if I can’t get that done this month then I might just take May as well to do it (and continue to keep things open and free). But, completing the foundation is important and will take an enormous amount of pressure off my back so I can just focus on trading bitcoin and capturing content that might be useful for others.
And that’s all I really want to do at this point since I’m still very much desiring to take the rest of 2022 to recover from the last season as a startup founder and CEO — it was long, tough, and I have a lot of scars that need healing.
To infinity & bitcoin,
Resources, Alpha, & More:
Every week I’ll share a few links to things that I find interesting, useful, or simply entertaining. There’s very little method to this madness.
Alex Gladstein 🌋 ⚡ @gladsteinIncredible point made by @YeonmiParkNK at the Bitcoin conference: In totalitarian regimes, nothing is yours, including your body Your mind is the last bastion of true freedom With Bitcoin you can actually secure your savings there This is a revolution https://t.co/S0WBrUepgx
Bitcoin reminds us that there is possibility and potential in all things. Also, don’t forget crypto taxes. Bitcoin shoes? Yes, especially for Ukraine. Lightning network is growing (and it’s something I’m continuing to track). Kraken and Cash app for instance. IMF, eww. Fed, now? Eww! Is bitcoin political? This could be neat but don’t count on it pumping the price because corrections are coming.
Listening to hype is the price you pay to learn to not listen to hype like this:
Infrastructure update and why Elon might be bad for Twitter via someone who knows something about large-scale social although I’m glad I’m back, for one. Bars, beer, and stuff is always a welcome addition.
The bond yield for the U.S. 30-year Treasury rose > 3% and people started to sell off:
Oh: If you want to time bottoms and tops for bitcoin one such tool is the “Mayer Multiple” which is an oscillator that calculates the ratio between current price and the 200-day MA (Moving Average). While one of the most simple cyclical indicators, it is one of the most effective at displaying how cheap and/or expensive bitcoin on relative terms.
Some folks just do this to buy / sell spot instead of Dollar Cost Averaging which, in my opinion, is good for noobs but if you really want to make money you’ll save your fiat for more optimal times to buy / sell.
I started my career with bitcoin doing DCA and it worked but then I got more smart and realized that capital flows are cycles and time is how you exploit multiples of growth and value. It’s just math, besides. Whales do this and that’s who you should follow and take note of because they like to profit. And knowing your on-chain is really smart because smart money cares about it too (so you should as well). Options, derivatives, bears (and bulls), oh my.
These updates in volume profiles in TradingView is a nice:
Adding this to the Trading Library:
And this was beautiful art:
Whew, what a week.
Trading Table & Portfolio Review:
I honestly didn’t trade much this week because I was starting a new medicine and that made me a bit wonky. But, I did manage to pull off a trade (or two) which you can see in the archives. Missed some serious opportunities but there’s always tomorrow.
Have a great weekend folks and trade safe!