Bat or Alt / Max Bat Before the Bounce?
It's bullish but not before delivering maximum pain.
Although we’ve had some pretty messed up declinations in the past few days (weeks, months, etc…) we’re ready for a bounce, of some kind, in the future because “what goes down, must go up” at some point as bitcoin moves in waves and cycles.
The question, of course, is how low she’ll go before providing some type of relief. Right now, the more important bullish harmonics are two types of bats: Bat and Alt / Max Bat on both the 4hr timeframes:
Above is the more normal Bat harmonic while there’s an alternative formation that could provide a bounce closer to the $35-36k range. That would be painful for a lot of folks who are hoping for a bounce now but bitcoin loves to produce maximum pain before any sort of relief — sorry, that’s just how she operates.
But, it won’t necessarily go there immediately and we’ll get some small bounces — and opportunities to snipe a long (or two) in the mean time.
For instance, I shared this on Twitter and I found some confluence between a 1hr Dragon harmonic and a White Swan on the 15min:
If you had already shorted her early in the morning from the “Fade the Fed” dump then you’re massively in-profit and should start back-stopping your stop loss appropriately.
That harmonic eventually created a local top and a bearish White Swan appeared that had a lot of confluence with fundamentals:
I ended up shorting this position @ $40,130 for a quick snipe as she faded:
I put in a stop loss @ $40,311 and let her ride:
My first thought was to exit around the .5 and .618 fibs:
You can see a lot of aggression around the .382 and the .5 and it was a serious struggle bus to go under. My guess is that anything in-between those fibs would be a great place to get out and pocket some cash. $39,650-ish might be right in the middle.
I was already in profit and I definitely wanted to start backstopping it if I could:
I wanted more confluence as she bounced up a bit more and found a bearish Bat on the 5minute that kept me grounded (and sane):
So, she continued her descent and since I was around and available I could begin a “stop loss hunt” campaign to get in and get out. I shared some of this on Twitter as we all watched it fade into darkness:
Yes, it was pretty if you were short and, at this present moment, I was. Volume kept grinding up as more sell order flooded the floor and so the fade might actually go much farther than the conservative first point of profit — $39,800:
Back stopping in profit was now the game:
Now, regardless of how much it might bounce upward, I’ll make a few bucks on this trade and walk away a winner with a 41% expected rate of return amounting to ~$168. Not bad, not bad bitcoin. I’ll take it.
I put in an order to take profit at $39,666 and then… I waited:
And then it hit my target (with a little slippage in my favor): 145% return amounting to a bit more than $500 buckeroos. I’ll take it. Total time in the trade, including work and then babysitting the trade? A little less than 2 hours of work and watching. Not bad, not bad.
I kept a bit more in the pan for more profit if she continued to ride but otherwise I had made my daily goal and I could walk away from my trading table satisfied. A few moments later, it popped my backstop and I was out of the trade:
Final take? $555. Nice. I love it when that happens. Steak dinner tonight degens, with shrimp and double fries. Let’s go! Yum.
Oh, and I’ll leave you with a bit of hopium — bullish Anti-Shark on the 4hr. Maybe there’s upside while we sleep?
To infinity & bitcoin,
There’s hope but we all just have to be patient for that mega-long that everyone is waiting to juice. Give her time and she’ll reward us all. Personally, I’m still waiting on a bit more confirmation before I put any money on her as a fake-out to the upside would be such a classic move.
Nice try girlfriend, nice try… maybe.
To infinity & bitcoin,