No One Knows the Future
There is only one real thing in trading: Profits.
We had a massive dump Sunday evening / morning (depending on where you are in the universe) and it wasn’t pretty, at all. 1,000 point drop in just a few minutes and things got really ugly, fast.
I did try to provide some hopium for folks with a Bat into a Cypher on the 4hr and even a Black Swan on the 1hr if it printed:
But the reality is that these weren’t done yet and we’d have to see how far she’d dip.
What’s funny is that just a few hours later I saw a few folks tweeting very different perspectives and opinions on price action and direction. For instance, here’s a “BUY IT NOW” tweet:
Notice the use of the word “precise” — come the fuck on! Next, we’ve got some negative sentiment that would suggest the downward trajectory:
Notice how they put this: “First time in Bitcoin’s history…” … … come the fuck on!
But maybe on-chain analytics will give us a clue? What about this signal data?
What could it all mean? Nothing and everything.
So, you’ve got n-number of folks who were calling for very different scenarios just before a major dump and so who does one trust? How could you possibly know? On-chain analytics? Market sentiment? Global retail data? Oracles? Astrology?
The reality is that no one knows the direction of a market and price action unless you're one of the folks who have the emotional and psychological fortitude to pull the trigger and be able to actually bankroll and finance such a move. In other words, you’re an institution or market maker and most of us just aren’t that.
So, we put in our stop losses and we stay conservative and we wait for the right confluences of data and signal and then we pull the trigger knowing that we could be wrong but we also could be really, really right and that luck will provide us an exit and outcome that we can appreciate.
Wait… was I right?
8ƀit @8BITa few high-level thoughts on $btc rn... ... and how i'm trading her. ... #bitcoin is going to do something but my bias is down on the meta. #btc will rise again. count on it. ... but, prepare for the worst. that's just good being a good fiduciary, nothing more, nothing less. https://t.co/jo4NXNBH8D
Nope. There’s no way that I could have guessed or known about that major drop. I just have a bias, like you. And time will tell who’s right and who’s wrong. But, we can trade on both sides of that argument.
Like, that bounce!
8ƀit @8BIT... nothing is perfect and there is no guarantee — this butterfly got eviscerated before it could print a decent bounce. ... fuuuuuuuuuuuck. $btc #bitcoin #btc https://t.co/258Nc4yimS
Took some profits and keeping a bit more for upside. Who knows? Stay close.
Monday is as good of a day to make money as any other.
To infinity & bitcoin,