Time in the Market > Timing the Market
Let your intuition guide you and build you profits.
I started the day thinking about (crypto) taxes and making more money (to pay for said taxes). At least things started in profit!
And, as you know, since every significant rise is an opportunity to short I started thinking about entry points after this nice beginning:
A Cypher on the 1hr was fighting a valid Black Swan on the 4hr:
A lot of bullish momentum so I want to stay calm and collected as we look for fades. Would they present themselves in a timely fashion? Short the rip, long the dip!
Watch for that backtest (it’s fun trying out video):
A White Swan on the 5 and 15 showed up for targets but it feels risky. Upside potential really seems in the favor of the bulls as the rest of the markets showed a bit a strength as the day progressed.
Take a look:
A Cypher on the 4hr printed giving more boost (and possible short) to the momentum that was already building throughout Monday morning:
I thought maybe I’d take a swing — why not? I didn’t want to wait for bitcoin forever and I wanted to test-drive some updated elements to my overall workflow.
So, I put on a trade:
And hoped that she’d fade! Which, of course, she didn’t. My entry on this wasn’t as good as I would have liked; I started looking for confluences and signals beyond my originals.
I put in an order to take profits which I’d adjust as things moved along:
I’d leave a bit in the chamber for further declination if she wanted to. A quick review of volume and volatility gave me hope:
So, we’d wait to see if this printed in the right direction and after a bit of time and up and down I started feeling very anxious about the direction; the price action that I was seeing was not printing in the way that I had hoped and I exited the position, just before it started heading in the other direction:
Losing $14 on the trade doesn’t hurt my feelings in the slightest, especially since my entry really sucked. I could have made some money on a much better entry, which did present itself a handful of times; I think I may have been a bit timid on these to be honest.
I went to bed feeling good about my intuition and I was out of my short. And, I even went to be early last night around 8:00pm local so when I woke up many hours later I found that we had completely blown through those levels!
All of that consolidation just burst through the hole!
It’s about “time in the market” not trying to “time the market” perfectly; I’ve learned this to be very true and the longer I’m trading the more I can trust my instincts. I’m glad I got out of the trade. And I’m glad I’ll have another opportunity today to do the same.
To infinity & bitcoin,